Editorial
Major General Dr. Khaled El-Khamry
Head of the National Center for Middle East Studies
The National Center for Middle East Studies releases issue (98) of the Middle East Papers periodical in light of successive and simultaneous developments and events at the internal and regional levels, and in light of multiple international interactions, which have cast their shadow on the course and direction of the Arab crises that are still ongoing, and are unlikely to reach acceptable or compatible solutions or settlements in light of escalating intra-regional and international conflicts.
Internally, in the forthcoming period, Egypt is witnessing a new presidential term for President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, extending from the year 2024 to 2030. Most Egyptians hope that this period will witness achieving high rates of GDP growth, improving the standard of living of the middle classes, and improving public services, as well as improving the performance of the state’s administrative apparatus, which clearly requires defining economic, social, administrative, and political priorities to achieve the goals of the new republic and overcome the social and economic challenges that Egypt is currently witnessing, and in light of the presidential awareness that comprehensive development is the ultimate goal of the new republic, development that balances population growth and the national product, achieving self-sufficiency, and raising the quality of life through education, health, and providing housing services and facilities. The new republic aims to be a republic of the citizen, a cohesive and cooperative society, to uphold the values of merit and achievement, alongside other values such as trust, tolerance, and cooperation, and to aim at supporting the principle of equality between citizens recognized by the constitution.
With regard to the prosperous phase that the nation is witnessing in the forthcoming period and in response to what is taking place in terms of moving forward on multiple national paths; in light of the rapid technological developments, the increasing economic crises, the successive political fluctuations, and the ongoing changes in the global system, the Egyptian national media has recently been facing increasing challenges, including those related to “professional challenges” and others related to the challenges of technology and the emergence of Web 2.0 and the new digital platforms it contains. As well as the dilemma of providing financial resources and material capabilities to the national media, and finally dealing with the problems of the digital ecology and the wars of fourth and fifth generation, such as rumors and false and misleading news. The Egyptian media has succeeded, through the United Company’s system, in conveying multiple messages through its remarkable organizational chart in restoring media leadership, which has recently emerged and confirms that the Egyptian state possesses real soft power capabilities through which it can control the media scene, and in the context of current developments and the real competition we face that requires, periodically, continued work to direct the compass and the development of media discourse in line with the Egyptian state’s arguments and its political discourse internally and regionally.
At the regional level, the consequences of the Israeli aggression on Gaza, more than six months after its outbreak after the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” remain the most present in foreign and Arab writings, as the Israeli aggression casts its shadow on the dynamics of international and regional interactions in the region. Foresighted approaches to the region indicate that the future of the Middle East, whatever the means of ending the ongoing war, and regardless of the direct outcomes of the conflict, will be reshaped by the expected changes inside Israel and Palestine, as well as shifts and changes in international (United States, European Union, Russia, and China) and regional (Turkey, and Iran) policies regarding the region’s critical issues. The Israeli aggression on Gaza also raises the problem of the future role of the United Nations and its various entities in the Palestinian file. The dilemma of the role and future of non-state armed actors in the region remains a matter of great interest due to the complex national and regional risks it represents, it is also certain in the same context that, due to the war on the Gaza Strip, Israel will face many consequences on its stability politically, socially, and economically, which will actually reflect on the developments that Israel will witness that may relate to considering the settlement option and implementing the two-state solution. It is expected that some international options will be imposed on Israel in order to accept its international presence as a committed state in the international organization and in international institutions, regardless of the issuance of any international rulings against it, whether in the International Criminal Court or the International Court of Justice, and hence, freezing the paths of regional cooperation and the Israeli peace project to lead the region (the Israeli Middle East project), especially since Israel will give most of its attention first to security, rebuilding the state’s capabilities, and restoring the ability to deter, and not engaging in regional cooperation projects, and Israel’s tendency – despite all the negative internal consequences – to further employ ample force in confronting its neighboring countries while not returning to consensual options, which requires investing in the current situation in Israel, in developing a solid plan of action (separately) to penetrate Israeli society and contribute to the dismantling of its centers of power politically, socially, and economically.
In a parallel context and within the framework of the regional interactions that were monitored and their approaches analyzed; The recent period witnessed a serious shift in the pattern of political relations between Iran and Sudan, as Iran took the initiative towards restoring political and diplomatic relations with Sudan 7 years after Khartoum’s decision to sever its relations with the Iranian side, as officials of the two countries exchanged official visits and it was agreed to re-exchange ambassadors between Khartoum and Tehran, besides the agreement to strengthen bilateral relations between them at all political, economic, security, and military levels, which raises the question about the determinants and objectives of Iranian policy towards Sudan, as well as the extent of the Iranian role in the current Sudanese crisis.
In Iraq, the American presence in Iraq has become the subject of criticism and mounting controversy by political forces and armed factions loyal to Iran in Iraq. Although this presence has witnessed relative inactivity since Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was sworn in as prime minister of Iraq, the war in the Gaza Strip has brought back discussions regarding the legal justifications and strategic considerations for the American presence in Iraq, which prompted the Iraqi government to announce its intention to discuss with the American side the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq.
Coinciding with the developments in occupied Palestine, Sudan, and Iraq; national reconciliation efforts in Libya are still witnessing stagnation, especially in light of the repeated failure of the main institutions to agree on the necessary steps to get out of the current state of stagnation that Libya has experienced since the failure to hold the elections that were scheduled for late 2021, as national reconciliation represents one of the main axes of the peace process. Libyan reconciliation, which has been taking place under the auspices of the United Nations since 2014, raises debates about the nature of national reconciliation in Libya, its parties, its obstacles, and finally its possible paths in the future.
In Africa, the West Africa region witnessed many political and economic transformations, which had consequences on the American approach towards the countries of the region. In light of the international and regional competition and polarization to reshape the map of interactions in West Africa, the US has recently tended to apply greater momentum to its policy towards the region. This raises the question about the nature of the new American orientations in West Africa, as well as their various goals and determinants in light of the world’s trend toward greater regional and international polarization, and that the critical developments taking place in the structure of the international system are linked to the interests and goals of each international or regional party, and in light of the determination to manage the world and its issues outside the contexts of international organization, whether in the Security Council or outside it, and even the ineffectiveness or implementation of international resolutions. Perhaps what is happening in the model of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars confirms this, and perhaps American behavior in various regions of the world has affected stability in the world and led to more tension between major countries, which is likely to escalate in the coming period as a result of the continuation of diplomatic and strategic confrontations in multiple fronts, which portends many acts of escalation in conflict areas and even the outbreak of new ones.
Despite the state of protracted conflicts and the deteriorating political and economic conditions in a number of countries in the region, there are many opportunities produced by the flexibility of international and regional interactions and polarizations, as well as increasing technological development. For example, the BRICS invited a group of Middle Eastern countries to join its membership. This is within the framework of the organization’s new policy to expand its membership, which represents real opportunities for a number of countries in the region. On the other hand, the United States and European countries intend to transfer their energies and resources from Europe to Asia. This requires European member states to rebalance a large amount of their maritime assets in the Indo-Pacific region in order to support US efforts to balance China’s power. Taking into account that the long-term deployment of forces in Asia will exhaust the resources of the European members to the maximum, leave Europe vulnerable to any Russian movements, and may cause disagreements among European countries regarding the priority of deterring Russia, or counterbalancing China’s power.
In the same context; contemporary technological discoveries have made huge contributions in the field of countering terrorism and radicalization, as many developed countries are rushing to employ and develop artificial intelligence capabilities and technologies in the field of early detection of extremism and addressing the phenomenon of terrorism and its various consequences, which provides multiple opportunities for Middle Eastern countries, which are now showing interest in exploiting its artificial intelligence industry in the field of countering radicalization and terrorism.
