Editorial
Major General Dr. Khaled El-Khamry
Head of the National Center for Middle East Studies
The National Center for Middle East Studies releases issue (99) of the Middle East Papers periodical in light of a series of developments and events across all levels that have affected the whole region’s security. This is especially pertinent given the ongoing war in Gaza and the Israeli government’s strategy to buy time with the U.S. administration until the remaining months of its term end. This suggests that the Israeli government will pursue several options, including lack of seriousness in participating in negotiations, focusing on securing desired weapon deals with the U.S. that were supposed to be concluded over the next four years but have now been expedited due to the war in the Gaza Strip. This approach aims to secure an early agreement that could protect the state of Israel and provide substantial security, given concerns about the potential for a new war with Hezbollah. This situation necessitates multiple paths, with ongoing strategic dialogue between Washington and Tel Aviv primarily centered on military support and the restoration of security and strategic partnership.
The main issue will remain the current and anticipated U.S. actions and the expected role of the administration in supporting mediator efforts, despite the prominent Israeli plan to employ and utilize military action without temporary suspension. This underscores that achieving any armistice is contingent upon a change in the current behavior of the Israeli government, regardless of anticipated changes in party leadership, thereby reinforcing the strategy of using force. This has led to increased popularity for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, according to recent opinion polls, confirming that instability in Israel will persist given the current specific choices.
In a related context, it could be emphasized that what currently links Washington and Tel Aviv is a shared desire not to clash, and to work on areas of agreement, even if temporary, to reach a solution to some crises, as the bets that each party is putting forward in the face of the other to achieve its main goals within the framework of the options that are taking place require working on more than one path, and within the framework of multiple directions, awaiting the stage after the presidential elections in the United States, regarding Israeli political and strategic aspects, the main dilemma facing Israel is working to impose national immunity for Israel in its current environment, while persisting and devoting the strategy of confrontation, and not waiting for the other party, whoever it may be, to threaten the state’s borders in light of fears that Israel’s allies will abandon their support for it, and provide means of support, as happened in the recent Gaza war, which will require rebuilding military capabilities and transforming from a smart army to a strong people’s army that defends the skies and borders of the Hebrew state.
In addition, the recognition of Palestine by European countries such as Spain and Norway has important implications, as the first hosted the Madrid Summit in the early nineties, and the latter was the site of the secret Oslo negotiations between the Israeli and Palestinian sides and actually produced the Palestinian Authority on the ground in accordance with political Oslo in addition to economic Oslo represented in the Paris Economic Agreement. Hence, it could be noted that the successive international recognition by other countries confirms that the matter is proceeding in favor of the Palestinian cause and leads to important consequences on the symbolic level, not the legal level.
On the other hand, there are serious transformations that will generally take place at the international level in the NATO system, in particular, on the one hand, and in the framework of European-American relations on the other hand. Let us wait to see the effects of this on the Far and Middle East together as US-China relations enter a new phase of expected conflict following the US engagement with both Britain and Australia in an alliance directed at China, while working with both India and Japan as well, indicating the possibility of shifting towards a multipolar conflict whose main axis is China, which should be viewed as a new Cold War between the American and Chinese sides, that consequently will affect the positions of many other countries. Consequently, there will be political and military polarization that will go beyond the existing axes or alliances, which will apply to NATO and the European Union countries that are still operating under the US defense umbrella, which will confirm that the US administration, in its eastward direction, will emphasize its supreme interests in a troubled region that is still facing a state of instability and requires real governing controls, which China realizes cautiously. This situation reflects what the two sides, China and America, are planning for, as they will tend towards mobilization of the largest number of allies within a framework of major interests that will include all parties, even small ones.
It is clear that the American administration will work to surround and besiege the Chinese presence politically, strategically, and economically, which confirms that the American administration will adopt a unilateral approach, even without notifying its allies, and that what happened in dealing with France will happen with any European or Asian country.
The world is therefore entering a new phase of regional and international interactions that differ in form and content from what has existed for many years in the post-Cold War era, especially since the United States is still searching for a new framework for its relations with both Russia and China, and in this context, it combines pressure means from a series of direct measures that are not only related to what the administration of the former president did, but also to the Biden doctrine, which focuses on the need to enter into a comprehensive economic confrontation with China to achieve a political and economic reality that is taking shape, in addition to searching for an economic security umbrella with the establishment of an American economic and strategic presence through a series of measures with allies such as Britain, Australia and Japan.
What was mentioned confirms that the repositioning of American forces in areas of influence will take more time and several measures in the coming period, especially with the redeployment of American forces in conflict zones and hot spots not only in the Caucasus, or near the regions of the Central Asian Republics, but also in the Balkans, which will lead to more potential confrontations, especially since the United States is still redefining NATO’s tasks in this context, and is working to redefine its major tasks inside and outside the region.
The expectation that the major security arrangements, within which China, Russia, and NATO countries are expected to move, will not take place, especially since the United States is still building a multi-directional strategy within the framework of the recent American strategy, the principles of which have not changed in the general sense within the framework of the major and important transformations taking place in the long term, especially since Russia will continue to operate according to a comprehensive strategy linked to its old calculations in the areas of its military presence, as is happening now, and through the repositioning of its forces in the areas of major interests and influence, which represent a real extension of its previous presence in the countries of the Soviet Union, and perhaps what is happening in Ukraine is a good example of what is happening, and is linked to what is coming whether in the major republics that were affiliated with it in the extensions of what is known as the Black Sea, which is the strategic framework for movement in Russian space, just as the South China Sea is a point of concentration and spread of the Chinese presence.
Also in this context, the US would restructure its way of dealing with China as a strategic threat, not only in Asia but in other Arab extensions, including the Middle East, especially since the international security arrangements, whether by China, the United States, or Russia, are based on the large international presence planned for the security of the entire region, whether in Syria, the Arabian Gulf, and in the extensions of the Mediterranean, and in Libya to the south of the Sahel and the Sahara, all of which are regions linked to major calculations and a more interventionist vision. Therefore, the plan to build fixed or variable alliances similar to an Arab NATO or the NESA group and then the MESA group, can be considered a model of this matter that can be an introduction to understanding the international variables that the United States has been working on recently, in light of re-arranging its security arrangements in the region.
In general, major alliances and redefining the role of all parties according to maps of interests will require anticipation and drawing up policies, and redefining the orientations of each party within the framework of the intertwining, intersection and interaction of international and regional interests, especially since the new and emerging international equations do not have a loser or a winner, and will not be zero-sum equations as some imagine. On the contrary, there must be intersections that include convergence in some interests and divergence in others, which major countries such as Russia, the United States, China and others realize in light of the emergence of other countries such as India and Japan internationally and regionally such as Brazil, the ASEAN group and others.
